Dec
2
House Prices: Where They Will Be in the Spring
Posted by hillslowinski under For Buyers, For Sellers, General Information, Marketing Reports, Regional News
(Reprinted from The KCM Blog, October 2011. Disclaimer: This blog covers the national housing market as a whole. Please check with a local real estate professional to discover how the following information will impact your region. – The KCM Crew.)
Hill’s Comment: While the recent S&P/Case-Shiller Index data reflect an overall slight increase in Washington area house prices, this goes against the nationwide trends, in which residential real estate prices dropped more than forecast in the year ended September. Prices rose and sales volume is highest in price ranges that meet the broadest market, the lower ranges. Upper bracket properties prices are not increasing. There are far fewer qualified buyers for higher priced inventory, and these homes are in fact attractive because buyers are getting great value for much lower cost (i.e., more house for their money). Prices offered are declining or these homes are lanquishing on the market. Many experts believe pressure inevitably will continue to mount and will drive all home prices lower in the Washigton market in the future.
________________
Many sellers want to wait until the spring before putting their home on (or back on) the market. This might be for any of several reasons:
- They don’t want to be inconvenienced during the holiday season.
- They believe that they will see more potential buyers and as a result will get a higher price.
- In the northern part of the country, they might not want people walking through the snow and then into their house.
- All of the above
In a normal real estate market, this may make sense. However, this market has been anything but normal. This spring will also see some abnormalities. The biggest difference will be the direction prices will take.
In years past, the spring market would favor the seller because increased demand would outpace any increase in supply: the number of houses coming onto the market would not be as great as the number of buyers newly entering the market. In most situations, when demand is greater than supply, prices increase.
The reason this spring will be different is that the supply of homes coming to the market will be dramatically impacted by foreclosure properties being released by the banks. Many believe this increase in inventory will far outweigh buyer demand. In situations where supply is greater than demand, prices decrease.
Will This Actually Happen?
RealtyTrac, in their latest foreclosure report, explained:
U.S. foreclosure activity has been mired down since October of last year, when the robo-signing controversy sparked a flurry of investigations into lender foreclosure procedures and paperwork. While foreclosure activity in September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up.
This will impact prices.
What Do Experts Believe the Impact Will Be?
Here are the pricing projections by several major entities:
- Zillow believes we will not see a bottom in prices until the first quarter of 2012.
- Standard & Poors thinks prices will drop %5 in the next few months.
- JP Morgan Chase believes prices will depreciate 6 to 7% over the next six months.
- Barclays says prices will fall 7% by the end of the first quarter of 2012.
Bottom Line
You may pay a hefty price for the convenience of not having your property on the market right now.
___________________________________________
F. Hill Slowinski, JD, REALTOR® in DC, MD, and VA
W.C. & A.N. Miller Realtors, A Long & Foster Company
Exclusive Affiliate of Christie’s Great Estates, President’s Club 2009
Consultant, Luxury Real Estate, Sloans & Kenyon Auctioneers and Appraisers
4701 Sangamore Road, Bethesda, Maryland 20816
Tel: 301-229-4000 Fax: 301-229-4015
Direct: 301-320-8430 · Cell: 301-452-1409 
Email: HSlowinski@LNF.com · Web Site: www.HillSlowinski.com
Weblog: http://HillSlowinskiRealEstate.com
HOMES WORTH BUYING • HOMES WORTH OWNING™
This rare 1770 freestanding brick flounder, built well back from the street and surrounded by a formal garden with potting shed and high brick walls, is a jewel of Old Town. The two and one-half story brick home, with a rolled tin roof and beautifully renovated and restored in 1995, is one of the few remaining freestanding flounder houses in Alexandria. It features crown moldings, paneled foyer, library with original fireplace, and a full in-law suite with separate entrance.
The property originally had a warehouse in the front yard. The practice of building rear wings was common in early America. The house never acquired additional fronting on the street after the warehouse was demolished in 1815. The 2 ½ story brick home with a rolled tin roof is one of the few remaining freestanding flounder houses in Alexandria. 
Crown moldings throughout the home were duplicated using an original 18th Century piece. Pass through the paneled foyer to the library warmed by the original fireplace. Exit the house through the renovated kitchen and turn right in the alley to view the windowless side of the house. 
Offered for $875,000 
The formal living room is anchored by an inviting clean natural gas fireplace, large side windows with southern exposures, and an elegant seating area. The living and dining rooms area have crown molding and polished wood floors. The intimate dining area leads to the open white kitchen which features a center island, gray countertops, and upgraded appliances. The attached eating space in the sun room overlooks a spacious 15′ x 15′ sun deck, enhanced with a stunning new English style square post iron trellis, private landscaped yard, and a deep inviting garden enclosure. 
The first floor features gleaming hardwood floors, an open living room with large front bay window and wood-burning fireplace, dining room, and sunroom overlooking the huge rear yard. The newer kitchen features a tiled floor, updated GE appliances, including a new stove and microwave, newer dishwasher, and refrigerator. The spacious sunroom and the kitchen both provide access to the flagstone garden patio, deep rear lawn, and garden areas.
The lower level features a utility/laundry area efficiently fitted with a full-size washer and dryer, a half bath, and a finished recreation room with newer carpeting, paneling, shelving, access to the back yard, and deep one-car garage with more storage space. The finished basement one level below is paneled and has a new wood floor and wood-burning fireplace. 
Belle Rive Estate
The design of the home and its orientation over the Potomac River were influenced by the architecture of Frank Lloyd Wright, overlooking the river from all corners and several exterior decks and balconies above the main level patio. Experience virtually the same impressive views of the Potomac River that George Washington had from his home at Mount Vernon, which is located ~1 mile up river. 
Opposite East Shore: 
For owners who view security as a business decision, the strategically fortified environments include a subterranean central core complex of rooms with protected access and communications, suitable for secure storage of records, valuables, or arms. The building includes the usual alarm and security systems with cameras and motion detectors. The home’s solid brick, block, and steel construction and its below-ground lowest level lend themselves to use as a dedicated safe room for executive, military, diplomatic, or embassy potential. 
A central core could be retrofitted with a four-level dumbwaiter. The open fourth level has been used at various times as a chapel, conference room, recital hall, business center, reception area, and art gallery with a large rooftop deck including separate enclosed external circular stairwell for catering and supplies delivery. 
â–ª FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:
F. Hill Slowinski, JD, Consultant, Sloans & Kenyon Luxury Real Estate
Comments Off